I estimate that there is more than a 10% chance we’ll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance we’ll see it within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance we’ll see it this century (by 2100).
I copied these bins to create Holden’s approximate forecasted distribution (note that Holden’s forecast is for Transformative AI rather than human-level AGI):
Compared to the upvote-weighted mixture in the OP, it puts more probability on longer timelines, with a median of 2060 vs. 2047 and 1⁄3 vs. 1⁄5 on after 2100. Holden gives a 10% chance by 2036 while the mixture gives approximately 30%. Snapshot is here.
Holden Karnofsky wrote on Cold Takes:
I copied these bins to create Holden’s approximate forecasted distribution (note that Holden’s forecast is for Transformative AI rather than human-level AGI):
Compared to the upvote-weighted mixture in the OP, it puts more probability on longer timelines, with a median of 2060 vs. 2047 and 1⁄3 vs. 1⁄5 on after 2100. Holden gives a 10% chance by 2036 while the mixture gives approximately 30%. Snapshot is here.