10%: We get to AGI with the current paradigm relatively quickly without major bumps.
60%: We get to it eventually sometime in the next ~50 years.
30%: We manage to move into a stable state where nobody can unilaterally build an AGI, then we focus on alignment for as long as it takes before we build it.
2nd attempt
Adele Lopez is right that 30% is super optimistic. Also I accidentally put a bunch within ’2080-2100′, instead of ‘after 2100’. And also I thought about it more. here’s my new one.
20% Current work leads directly into AI in the next 15 years.
55% There are some major bottlenecks, new insights needed, and some engineering projects comparable in size to the manhattan project. This is 2035 to 2070.
10% This is to fill out 2070 to 2100.
15% We manage to move to a stable state, or alternatively civilizational collapse / non-AI x-risk stops AI research. This is beyond 2100.
Interesting, I would have guessed your big bathtub bottom was something like long ai winter due to current approach stalling and no one finding the needed breakthrough until 2080′s.
Here’s my quick forecast, to get things going. Probably if anyone asks me questions about it I’ll realise I’m embarrassed by it and change it.
Link.
It has three buckets:
10%: We get to AGI with the current paradigm relatively quickly without major bumps.
60%: We get to it eventually sometime in the next ~50 years.
30%: We manage to move into a stable state where nobody can unilaterally build an AGI, then we focus on alignment for as long as it takes before we build it.
2nd attempt
Adele Lopez is right that 30% is super optimistic. Also I accidentally put a bunch within ’2080-2100′, instead of ‘after 2100’. And also I thought about it more. here’s my new one.
Link.
It has four buckets:
20% Current work leads directly into AI in the next 15 years.
55% There are some major bottlenecks, new insights needed, and some engineering projects comparable in size to the manhattan project. This is 2035 to 2070.
10% This is to fill out 2070 to 2100.
15% We manage to move to a stable state, or alternatively civilizational collapse / non-AI x-risk stops AI research. This is beyond 2100.
Interesting, I would have guessed your big bathtub bottom was something like long ai winter due to current approach stalling and no one finding the needed breakthrough until 2080′s.
That 30% where we get our shit together seems wildly optimistic to me!
You’re right. Updated.