That small tail at the end feels really suspicious. I.e., it implies that if we haven’t reached AGI by 2080, then we probably won’t reach it at all. I feel like this might be an artifact of specifying a small number of bins on elicit, though.
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That small tail at the end feels really suspicious. I.e., it implies that if we haven’t reached AGI by 2080, then we probably won’t reach it at all. I feel like this might be an artifact of specifying a small number of bins on elicit, though.