Stuart, what’s your current opinion on backward-facing oracles? I ask because it seems like in a later post you changed your mind and went back to thinking that a counterfactual approach is needed to avoid manipulation after all. Is that right?
Basically, yes. I’m no longer sure the terminology and concept of BFO is that useful, and I think all self-confirming oracles have problems. I also believe that these problems need not be cleanly of a “manipulation” or “non-manipulation” type.
I also believe there are smoother ways to reach “manipulation”, so my point starting “However, it is not a fixed point that the BFO is likely to find...” is wrong.
I’ll add a comment at the beginning of the post, clarifying this post is no longer my current best model.
Basically, yes. I’m no longer sure the terminology and concept of BFO is that useful, and I think all self-confirming oracles have problems. I also believe that these problems need not be cleanly of a “manipulation” or “non-manipulation” type.
I also believe there are smoother ways to reach “manipulation”, so my point starting “However, it is not a fixed point that the BFO is likely to find...” is wrong.
I’ll add a comment at the beginning of the post, clarifying this post is no longer my current best model.