By no means an expert, but I think point estimates of probability miss a lot of relevant information that is captured by confidence/credibility intervals and distributions, like the point estimate’s reliability. In general it probably pays to think about forecasting not as something new and unique humans do, but in terms of predictions made, say, in physics, where people calculate probability distributions and confidence intervals for particle masses, cosmological constant value, element abundance on exoplanets etc.
TL;DR: this community tends to reinvent the wheel a lot.
By no means an expert, but I think point estimates of probability miss a lot of relevant information that is captured by confidence/credibility intervals and distributions, like the point estimate’s reliability. In general it probably pays to think about forecasting not as something new and unique humans do, but in terms of predictions made, say, in physics, where people calculate probability distributions and confidence intervals for particle masses, cosmological constant value, element abundance on exoplanets etc.
TL;DR: this community tends to reinvent the wheel a lot.