Overall this seems like a great general method. I have some critical comments below on the exact implementation, but I want to emphasize upfront that I expect minimal problems in reality, given that, as you mention, LessWrong users are generally both gentle and accurate with downvotes. It is probably not worth making the system more complicated until you see problems in practice.
I don’t think I like the −1/-5/-15 recent karma distinction. Consider someone who has reasonable positive reception to their comments, albeit on lower popularity posts, say an average of +2/comment. They then post a negatively received post on a popular topical thread; eg. say they take an unpopular side in a breaking controversy, or even just say something outright rude.
If they make two such comments, they would get −1 net karma in the last 20 posts at −18*2/2-1=-19 karma average of the two posts. They would get −5 at −21 karma average. This distinction seems pretty arbitrary, and the cool-off scale doesn’t seem to map to anything.
One solution might be to smooth these numbers out to emphasize modal behavior, like taking the sum of roots instead (and shifting totals accordingly).
Similarly, let’s say a user makes most of their posts at a rate of 2/day, again well received on average. They then have a deep conversation in a single thread over the course of a few days, pushing out most of the last 20 posts. Does it make sense to limit their other comments if this one conversation was poorly reviewed?
One possibility I see is for time aggregation to come into play a bit earlier.
Overall this seems like a great general method. I have some critical comments below on the exact implementation, but I want to emphasize upfront that I expect minimal problems in reality, given that, as you mention, LessWrong users are generally both gentle and accurate with downvotes. It is probably not worth making the system more complicated until you see problems in practice.
I don’t think I like the −1/-5/-15 recent karma distinction. Consider someone who has reasonable positive reception to their comments, albeit on lower popularity posts, say an average of +2/comment. They then post a negatively received post on a popular topical thread; eg. say they take an unpopular side in a breaking controversy, or even just say something outright rude.
If they make two such comments, they would get −1 net karma in the last 20 posts at −18*2/2-1=-19 karma average of the two posts. They would get −5 at −21 karma average. This distinction seems pretty arbitrary, and the cool-off scale doesn’t seem to map to anything.
One solution might be to smooth these numbers out to emphasize modal behavior, like taking the sum of roots instead (and shifting totals accordingly).
Similarly, let’s say a user makes most of their posts at a rate of 2/day, again well received on average. They then have a deep conversation in a single thread over the course of a few days, pushing out most of the last 20 posts. Does it make sense to limit their other comments if this one conversation was poorly reviewed?
One possibility I see is for time aggregation to come into play a bit earlier.