There’s also a decent amount of call option volume+interest at strike prices of $17.5, $20, $22.5, $25, (same links as the comment I’m replying to) which suggests to me that the market is expecting lower upside on successful merger than you. The current price is about $15.8/share, so $17.5 is only +10% and $25 is only +58%.
There’s also of course volume+interest for call option at higher strike prices, $27.5, $30, $32.5.
I think this also suggests the market-implied odds calculations giving ~40% to successful merger are wrong, because the expected upside is overestimated. The market-implied odds are higher.
There’s also a decent amount of call option volume+interest at strike prices of $17.5, $20, $22.5, $25, (same links as the comment I’m replying to) which suggests to me that the market is expecting lower upside on successful merger than you. The current price is about $15.8/share, so $17.5 is only +10% and $25 is only +58%.
There’s also of course volume+interest for call option at higher strike prices, $27.5, $30, $32.5.
I think this also suggests the market-implied odds calculations giving ~40% to successful merger are wrong, because the expected upside is overestimated. The market-implied odds are higher.