private_messaging comments on Estimates vs. head-to-head comparisons

private_messaging 5 May 2013 20:27 UTC
−4 points

This is simply not true. It is, in fact, the exact opposite of the truth.

Ghmm. Are those valid arguments:

“Box B shows a blue stamp, and box A is shiny,” and so on, until he reaches: “And therefore, box B contains the diamond.”

?
- gjm 5 May 2013 23:52 UTC
  1 point
  Parent
  Look two paragraphs further up to where he’s setting the scene for this thought experiment:
  
  There are all manner of signs and portents indicating whether a box contains a diamond; but I have no sign which I know to be perfectly reliable. There is a blue stamp on one box, for example, and I know that boxes which contain diamonds are more likely than empty boxes to show a blue stamp. Or one box has a shiny surface, and I have a suspicion—I am not sure—that no diamond-containing box is ever shiny.
  
  And it’s in that context that he postulates a “clever arguer” who tries to persuade him by listing (true) facts like “box B shows a blue stamp”.