Yes, but it is hindsight bias to give that a lot of weight. (This is a common thing for lots of biases: they involve things which are strictly speaking actual Bayesian evidence but where humans frequently massively over-update based on them.)
Yes, but it is hindsight bias to give that a lot of weight. (This is a common thing for lots of biases: they involve things which are strictly speaking actual Bayesian evidence but where humans frequently massively over-update based on them.)