BTW, in the global warning question I took “significant” to mean “much larger than typical natural variability over the same timescales”. My answer would have been higher if it meant “much larger than measurement uncertainties”, lower if it meant “likely to have negative effects much larger than the cost of averting the warning would have been”, and even lower if it meant “much larger than typical natural variability over any timescales”.
Ick. I was annoyed with the Global Warming question. Without a timescale and an objective definition of “significant”, there’s no particular meaning to the question besides signaling team membership.
I left it blank because of the vagueness. I wonder if the vagueness will have a biased or unbiased effect on those who decline to respond.
Reword the question in the Probabilities section to “What is the probability that the average temperatures on Earth (averaged over a few decades) are rising at a much higher rate than typical of natural variability, largely as a result of human activities?”
Add a question to the Politics section reading “How would you describe your opinion on efforts to contain global warming?”
Taken.
BTW, in the global warning question I took “significant” to mean “much larger than typical natural variability over the same timescales”. My answer would have been higher if it meant “much larger than measurement uncertainties”, lower if it meant “likely to have negative effects much larger than the cost of averting the warning would have been”, and even lower if it meant “much larger than typical natural variability over any timescales”.
Ick. I was annoyed with the Global Warming question. Without a timescale and an objective definition of “significant”, there’s no particular meaning to the question besides signaling team membership.
I left it blank because of the vagueness. I wonder if the vagueness will have a biased or unbiased effect on those who decline to respond.
Suggestion for next year’s survey:
Reword the question in the Probabilities section to “What is the probability that the average temperatures on Earth (averaged over a few decades) are rising at a much higher rate than typical of natural variability, largely as a result of human activities?”
Add a question to the Politics section reading “How would you describe your opinion on efforts to contain global warming?”