Regarding Sleeping Counterfact: there seems to be two updates you could make, and thus there should be conceptual space for two interesting ways of being updatelessness in this problem; you could be ‘anthropically updateless’, i.e., not update on your existence in the standard Thirder way, and you could also be updateless with respect to the researchers asking for money (just as in counterfactual mugging). And it seems like these two variants will make different recommendations.
Suppose you make the first update, but not the second. Then the evidentialist value of paying up would plausibly be (1/3)⋅250−(2/3)⋅200<0.
Suppose, on the other hand, that you are updateless with respect to both variables. Then the evidentialist value of paying up would be (1/2)⋅250−(1/2)⋅200>0.
Regarding Sleeping Counterfact: there seems to be two updates you could make, and thus there should be conceptual space for two interesting ways of being updatelessness in this problem; you could be ‘anthropically updateless’, i.e., not update on your existence in the standard Thirder way, and you could also be updateless with respect to the researchers asking for money (just as in counterfactual mugging). And it seems like these two variants will make different recommendations.
Suppose you make the first update, but not the second. Then the evidentialist value of paying up would plausibly be (1/3)⋅250−(2/3)⋅200<0.
Suppose, on the other hand, that you are updateless with respect to both variables. Then the evidentialist value of paying up would be (1/2)⋅250−(1/2)⋅200>0.