I appreciate this systemic approach to analyzing lying! The Pros/Cons depend heavily on the type of lie, and you can split it roughly between “factual lies” and “sympathy lies”. Factual lies are about whether or not this thing did or did not happen, while sympathy lies are used to generate sympathy from others (e.g. “if I get convicted I’ll lose everything”).
Sympathy lies are more likely to be successful, but they’re also not very consequential. It’s possible that it could have an effect at the slimmest of margins, but the risks give it an expected payoff close to zero. The only way I can see this work is if it’s done by the truly sociopathic compulsive liars who can manage to successfully con dozens of people.
Factual lies are meaningless. The evidence either corroborates their claims or it doesn’t. If there’s no corroboration except their word, then they open themselves up to potentially brutal cross-examination. Many many (guilty) defendants have confidently believed they can talk their way out of a situation and failed spectacularly (SBF comes to mind).
And yes, absolutely my job relies heavily on building trust and rapport with my clients. It occupies at least around 80% of my initial conversations with a client.
It sounds like with “factual lies” you’re saying that certain lies are about something that can easily be verified, and thus you’re unlikely to convince other people that you’re being truthful. Is that accurate? If so, that definitely makes sense. It seems like it’s almost always a bad idea to lie in such situations.
Why do you say that sympathy lies are not very consequential (assuming they are successful)? My model is that defendants have a pretty large range for how hard they could work on the case, working harder increases the odds of of winning by a good amount, and how hard they work depends a good amount on how sympathetic they are towards the defendant.
And yes, absolutely my job relies heavily on building trust and rapport with my clients. It occupies at least around 80% of my initial conversations with a client.
Gotcha. Makes sense. It’s interesting how frequently a job that is on it’s surface about X is largely, even mainly about Y. With X being “legal stuff” and Y being “emotional stuff” here (I’m being very hand-wavy).
Another example: I’m a programmer and I think that for programming, X is “writing code” and Y is “empathizing with users and working backwards from their most pressing needs”. In theory there is a division of labor and the product manager deals with the Y, but in practice I’ve found that even in companies that try to do this heavily (smaller, more startup-y companies don’t aim to divide the labor as much), Y is still incredibly important. Probably even more important than X.
It sounds like with “factual lies” you’re saying that certain lies are about something that can easily be verified, and thus you’re unlikely to convince other people that you’re being truthful.
Not necessarily, I was referring to lies about the case itself, and those always have the potential to be exposed by either my investigations or the prosecutor.
Why do you say that sympathy lies are not very consequential (assuming they are successful)? My model is that defendants have a pretty large range for how hard they could work on the case, working harder increases the odds of of winning by a good amount, and how hard they work depends a good amount on how sympathetic they are towards the defendant.
Forgive me for answering with literal walls of text but this essay might explain things better: Eleven Magic Words. Bottom line is that I’m generally useless and any contributions I may bring to the table are almost entirely fungible. This other one of mine also gets into the inherent limitations of my job: Death of a Client.
I appreciate this systemic approach to analyzing lying! The Pros/Cons depend heavily on the type of lie, and you can split it roughly between “factual lies” and “sympathy lies”. Factual lies are about whether or not this thing did or did not happen, while sympathy lies are used to generate sympathy from others (e.g. “if I get convicted I’ll lose everything”).
Sympathy lies are more likely to be successful, but they’re also not very consequential. It’s possible that it could have an effect at the slimmest of margins, but the risks give it an expected payoff close to zero. The only way I can see this work is if it’s done by the truly sociopathic compulsive liars who can manage to successfully con dozens of people.
Factual lies are meaningless. The evidence either corroborates their claims or it doesn’t. If there’s no corroboration except their word, then they open themselves up to potentially brutal cross-examination. Many many (guilty) defendants have confidently believed they can talk their way out of a situation and failed spectacularly (SBF comes to mind).
And yes, absolutely my job relies heavily on building trust and rapport with my clients. It occupies at least around 80% of my initial conversations with a client.
It sounds like with “factual lies” you’re saying that certain lies are about something that can easily be verified, and thus you’re unlikely to convince other people that you’re being truthful. Is that accurate? If so, that definitely makes sense. It seems like it’s almost always a bad idea to lie in such situations.
Why do you say that sympathy lies are not very consequential (assuming they are successful)? My model is that defendants have a pretty large range for how hard they could work on the case, working harder increases the odds of of winning by a good amount, and how hard they work depends a good amount on how sympathetic they are towards the defendant.
Gotcha. Makes sense. It’s interesting how frequently a job that is on it’s surface about X is largely, even mainly about Y. With X being “legal stuff” and Y being “emotional stuff” here (I’m being very hand-wavy).
Another example: I’m a programmer and I think that for programming, X is “writing code” and Y is “empathizing with users and working backwards from their most pressing needs”. In theory there is a division of labor and the product manager deals with the Y, but in practice I’ve found that even in companies that try to do this heavily (smaller, more startup-y companies don’t aim to divide the labor as much), Y is still incredibly important. Probably even more important than X.
Not necessarily, I was referring to lies about the case itself, and those always have the potential to be exposed by either my investigations or the prosecutor.
Forgive me for answering with literal walls of text but this essay might explain things better: Eleven Magic Words. Bottom line is that I’m generally useless and any contributions I may bring to the table are almost entirely fungible. This other one of mine also gets into the inherent limitations of my job: Death of a Client.