“lack of a satisfying explanatory solution” does not imply low likelihood if you think that the explanatory solution exists but is computationally hard to find (which in fact seems pretty reasonable).
OTOH, you should keep lowering the probability of ever finding a satisfactory explanation the longer you keep failing to find one.
This update seems like it would be extraordinarily small, given our poor understanding of the brain, and the relatively small amount of concerted effort that goes into understanding consciousness.
OTOH, you should keep lowering the probability of ever finding a satisfactory explanation the longer you keep failing to find one.
This update seems like it would be extraordinarily small, given our poor understanding of the brain, and the relatively small amount of concerted effort that goes into understanding consciousness.
We don’t have a uniformly poor understanding: we understand some aspects of mentality much better than others..