Most smug contrarians have many contrarian beliefs, not just one. If we average over all the various beliefs of smug contrarians, what level of accuracy will we find? (Could we find data on smug contrarians from a century ago?) I suspect accuracy will be far too low to justify such smugness. Even if we limit our attention to high IQ smug contrarians, I suspect accuracy will also be low. Yes the typical objection to smugness is probably to the cockiness of asserting higher status than one has been granted, but the typical reason people are smugly contrarian is also probably wanting to defy current status rankings. You can’t assume that because they are hypocrites and disagree with you that you are not a hypocrite.
Once again, I think that for smart (e.g. made good arguments, e.g. arguments that contemporaries who also made good arguments [recursive but sound] couldn’t poke holes in) smug contrarians of a century ago this is simply wrong, though it needs a lot of cashing out in specific detailed claims.
The most important point in this comment was buried towards the end.
“wanting to defy current status rankings” is an incentive; an incentive that the original article doesn’t pay enough attention to.
Adding a rhetorical concession to the original article, something like: “As someone who is, academically, less-credentialed, upsetting the credentials hierarchy would be be to my advantage. My subconscious may be twisting my beliefs in a self-serving direction. However [… and so on...]” might make the original article stronger.
Adding a rhetorical concession to the original article, something like: “As someone who is, academically, less-credentialed, upsetting the credentials hierarchy would be be to my advantage. My subconscious may be twisting my beliefs in a self-serving direction. However [… and so on...]” might make the original article stronger.
That would be fake humility used for the purposes of supplication, not improving the strength of the article. The main use of such an addition would be to demonstrate Contrarian Status Catch 22b. If you are asked why you disagree with a high status person and your answer is not “I was being smug and arrogant and I must be wrong” then you are being smug and arrogant.
The effectiveness of this ploy explains why “How do explain the fact that disagrees with you?” is such a popular form of one-upmanship. It works even when there is a good answer (and usually even when doesn’t disagree).
Yes, I agree. Rhetorical techniques are about persuasion, not truth. Possibly “stronger” should have been “more palatable” or “more acceptable to the non-choir”.
“More acceptable to the choir” would be more accurate. Around here the in-group signalling chorus is “other people are sycophants and I am better connected and less gullible”. More generally, the choir signal is “I consider any comments that don’t advocated deference to status unacceptable because I am high status myself and want the approval of those even higher”. From this it is easy to extract Contrarian Status Catch 18.
Most beliefs are wrong. We do not test medicine against nothing, but rather against a placebo. In this case we must ask ourselves whether or not holding contrarian beliefs gives a result better then comparative strategies.
Most smug contrarians have many contrarian beliefs, not just one. If we average over all the various beliefs of smug contrarians, what level of accuracy will we find? (Could we find data on smug contrarians from a century ago?) I suspect accuracy will be far too low to justify such smugness. Even if we limit our attention to high IQ smug contrarians, I suspect accuracy will also be low. Yes the typical objection to smugness is probably to the cockiness of asserting higher status than one has been granted, but the typical reason people are smugly contrarian is also probably wanting to defy current status rankings. You can’t assume that because they are hypocrites and disagree with you that you are not a hypocrite.
Once again, I think that for smart (e.g. made good arguments, e.g. arguments that contemporaries who also made good arguments [recursive but sound] couldn’t poke holes in) smug contrarians of a century ago this is simply wrong, though it needs a lot of cashing out in specific detailed claims.
The most important point in this comment was buried towards the end.
“wanting to defy current status rankings” is an incentive; an incentive that the original article doesn’t pay enough attention to.
Adding a rhetorical concession to the original article, something like: “As someone who is, academically, less-credentialed, upsetting the credentials hierarchy would be be to my advantage. My subconscious may be twisting my beliefs in a self-serving direction. However [… and so on...]” might make the original article stronger.
That would be fake humility used for the purposes of supplication, not improving the strength of the article. The main use of such an addition would be to demonstrate Contrarian Status Catch 22b. If you are asked why you disagree with a high status person and your answer is not “I was being smug and arrogant and I must be wrong” then you are being smug and arrogant.
The effectiveness of this ploy explains why “How do explain the fact that disagrees with you?” is such a popular form of one-upmanship. It works even when there is a good answer (and usually even when doesn’t disagree).
Yes, I agree. Rhetorical techniques are about persuasion, not truth. Possibly “stronger” should have been “more palatable” or “more acceptable to the non-choir”.
“More acceptable to the choir” would be more accurate. Around here the in-group signalling chorus is “other people are sycophants and I am better connected and less gullible”. More generally, the choir signal is “I consider any comments that don’t advocated deference to status unacceptable because I am high status myself and want the approval of those even higher”. From this it is easy to extract Contrarian Status Catch 18.
Most beliefs are wrong. We do not test medicine against nothing, but rather against a placebo. In this case we must ask ourselves whether or not holding contrarian beliefs gives a result better then comparative strategies.
The answer is yes. Let them be smug!