Not only is “What do we believe?” a theoretically distinct question from “What do I do about it?”, but by your logic we should also refuse to believe in spatially infinite universes and inflationary universes, since they also have lots of copies of us.
Not only is “What do we believe?” a theoretically distinct question from “What do I do about it?”
“What do we believe?” is a distinct question; and asking it is comitting an error of rationality. The limitations of our minds often force us to use “belief” as a heuristic; but we should remember that it is fundamentally an error, particularly when the consequences are large.
You don’t do the expected-cost analysis when investigating a theory; you should do it before dismissing a theory. Because, If someday you build an AI, and hardcode in the many-worlds assumption because many years before you dismissed the one-world hypothesis from your mind and have not considered it since, you will be committing a grave Bayesian error, with possibly disastrous consequences.
(My cost-of-error statements above are for you specifically. Most people aren’t planning to build a singleton.)
I can’t speak for Eliezer, but if I was building a singleton I probably wouldn’t hard-code my own particular scientific beliefs into it, and even if I did I certainly wouldn’t program any theory at 100% confidence.
Not only is “What do we believe?” a theoretically distinct question from “What do I do about it?”, but by your logic we should also refuse to believe in spatially infinite universes and inflationary universes, since they also have lots of copies of us.
“What do we believe?” is a distinct question; and asking it is comitting an error of rationality. The limitations of our minds often force us to use “belief” as a heuristic; but we should remember that it is fundamentally an error, particularly when the consequences are large.
You don’t do the expected-cost analysis when investigating a theory; you should do it before dismissing a theory. Because, If someday you build an AI, and hardcode in the many-worlds assumption because many years before you dismissed the one-world hypothesis from your mind and have not considered it since, you will be committing a grave Bayesian error, with possibly disastrous consequences.
(My cost-of-error statements above are for you specifically. Most people aren’t planning to build a singleton.)
I can’t speak for Eliezer, but if I was building a singleton I probably wouldn’t hard-code my own particular scientific beliefs into it, and even if I did I certainly wouldn’t program any theory at 100% confidence.