As the post is written, Eliezer seems too quick to presume that if people do not want to affiliate with a belief because of the low status of folks who hold that belief, that must mean those people admit that the evidence favors the belief. Yes if the belief happens to be correct then having the wrong sort of early enthusiasts will sadly discourage others from accepting a correct belief. But this same process will also play out if the belief is wrong.
Note that not all new beliefs first gain the interest of low status folks—many new beliefs are first championed by high status groups. So we should ask: what sorts of beliefs tend to be first championed by low status folks? If those beliefs tend to be less true on average than the beliefs first championed by high status folks, then the usual status moves would actually make epistemic sense.
I’d like details here. The second paragraph seems basically false to me, though vague enough that it’s not clearly false and specific examples would be of some use. Relative status hasn’t been discussed, for instance. I’m also not sure what we are counting as a ‘new belief’. The lowest status folks almost never advocate new beliefs.
As the post is written, Eliezer seems too quick to presume that if people do not want to affiliate with a belief because of the low status of folks who hold that belief, that must mean those people admit that the evidence favors the belief. Yes if the belief happens to be correct then having the wrong sort of early enthusiasts will sadly discourage others from accepting a correct belief. But this same process will also play out if the belief is wrong.
Note that not all new beliefs first gain the interest of low status folks—many new beliefs are first championed by high status groups. So we should ask: what sorts of beliefs tend to be first championed by low status folks? If those beliefs tend to be less true on average than the beliefs first championed by high status folks, then the usual status moves would actually make epistemic sense.
I’d like details here. The second paragraph seems basically false to me, though vague enough that it’s not clearly false and specific examples would be of some use. Relative status hasn’t been discussed, for instance. I’m also not sure what we are counting as a ‘new belief’. The lowest status folks almost never advocate new beliefs.