There may or may not be intervening steps, but if your cousins predictions are accurate we can create causal models that either have predictions->card drawn or card drawn->predictions.
Or predictions <-- lurking variable --> card drawn.
Or Great Psychiator->Card drawn ^ Great Psychiator->predictions
Which might look the same to use here within the universe but is far less likely as a prior.
There may or may not be intervening steps, but if your cousins predictions are accurate we can create causal models that either have predictions->card drawn or card drawn->predictions.
Or predictions <-- lurking variable --> card drawn.
Or Great Psychiator->Card drawn ^ Great Psychiator->predictions
Which might look the same to use here within the universe but is far less likely as a prior.