It seems very likely possible for a human to achieve, say, 75% success on both one-boxers and two-boxers, maybe not with such a simple rule, but certainly without an actual mind reading ability. If this is the case, then there must be plenty of one-boxers who would one-box against someone who was getting a 75% success rate, even if you aren’t one of them.
I don’t think any advocates of one-boxing would disagree with that. The situation you’re describing just isn’t an actual Newcomb problem any more.
I agree. That was the whole point. I was not trying to say that one-boxers would disagree, but that they would agree. The point is that to have an “actual Newcomb problem” your personal belief about whether you will get the million has to actually vary with your actual choice to take one or two boxes in the particular case; if your belief isn’t going to vary, even in the individual case, you will just take both boxes according to the argument, “I’ll get whatever I would have with one box, plus the thousand.”
I was simply saying that since Eliezer constructs the Smoking Lesion as a counterexample to EDT, we need to treat the “actual Smoking Lesion” in the same way: it is only the “actual Smoking Lesion problem” if your belief that you have the lesion is actually going to vary, depending on whether you choose to smoke or not.
It seems very likely possible for a human to achieve, say, 75% success on both one-boxers and two-boxers, maybe not with such a simple rule, but certainly without an actual mind reading ability. If this is the case, then there must be plenty of one-boxers who would one-box against someone who was getting a 75% success rate, even if you aren’t one of them.
I agree. That was the whole point. I was not trying to say that one-boxers would disagree, but that they would agree. The point is that to have an “actual Newcomb problem” your personal belief about whether you will get the million has to actually vary with your actual choice to take one or two boxes in the particular case; if your belief isn’t going to vary, even in the individual case, you will just take both boxes according to the argument, “I’ll get whatever I would have with one box, plus the thousand.”
I was simply saying that since Eliezer constructs the Smoking Lesion as a counterexample to EDT, we need to treat the “actual Smoking Lesion” in the same way: it is only the “actual Smoking Lesion problem” if your belief that you have the lesion is actually going to vary, depending on whether you choose to smoke or not.