I looked back at some of Eliezer’s early posts on this and they certainly didn’t claim to be fully worked out; he said things like “this part is still magic,” and so on. However, I have significantly increased my estimate of the possibility that TDT might be incoherent, or at any rate arbitrary; he did seem to want to say that you would consider yourself the cause of the million being in the box, and I don’t think it is true in any non-arbitrary way that you should consider yourself the cause of the million, and not of whether you have the lesion. As an example (which is certainly very different from Eliezer saying it), bogus seemed to assert that it was just the presentation of the problem, namely whether you count yourself as being able to affect something or not.
I looked back at some of Eliezer’s early posts on this and they certainly didn’t claim to be fully worked out; he said things like “this part is still magic,” and so on. However, I have significantly increased my estimate of the possibility that TDT might be incoherent, or at any rate arbitrary; he did seem to want to say that you would consider yourself the cause of the million being in the box, and I don’t think it is true in any non-arbitrary way that you should consider yourself the cause of the million, and not of whether you have the lesion. As an example (which is certainly very different from Eliezer saying it), bogus seemed to assert that it was just the presentation of the problem, namely whether you count yourself as being able to affect something or not.