I was raised by a rationalist economist. At some point I got the idea that I wanted to be a statistical outlier, and also that irrationality was the outlier. After starting to pay attention to current events and polls, I’m now pretty sure that the second premise is incorrect.
I still have many thought patterns from that period that I find difficult to overcome. I try to counter them in the more important decisions by assigning WAG numerical values and working through equations to find a weighted output. I read more non-fiction than fiction now, and I am working with a mental health professional to overcome some of those patterns. I suppose I consider myself to have a good rationalist grounding while being used to completely ignoring it in my everyday life.
I found Less Wrong through FreethoughtBlogs and “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationalism.” I added it to my feed reader and have been forcing my economist to help me work though some of the more science-of-choice oriented posts.
It’s reasonably common among engineers in my experience. Along with SWAG—scientific wild-assed guessed, intended to denote something that has minimal support—an estimation that is the output of combining WAGs and actual data, for example.
He may not have known it, but it’s used. I worked in Catastrophe Risk modeling, and it was a term that applied to what our clients and competitors did; not ourselves, we had rigorous methodologies that were not discussed because they were “trade secrets,” or as I came to understand, what is referred to below as SWAG.
Hello.
I was raised by a rationalist economist. At some point I got the idea that I wanted to be a statistical outlier, and also that irrationality was the outlier. After starting to pay attention to current events and polls, I’m now pretty sure that the second premise is incorrect.
I still have many thought patterns from that period that I find difficult to overcome. I try to counter them in the more important decisions by assigning WAG numerical values and working through equations to find a weighted output. I read more non-fiction than fiction now, and I am working with a mental health professional to overcome some of those patterns. I suppose I consider myself to have a good rationalist grounding while being used to completely ignoring it in my everyday life.
I found Less Wrong through FreethoughtBlogs and “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationalism.” I added it to my feed reader and have been forcing my economist to help me work though some of the more science-of-choice oriented posts.
???
The only expansion of that I can find with Google (Wifes And Girlfriends [of footballers]) doesn’t seem too relevant.
Wild Ass Guess.
Was that just meta, or did you already know it? In what fields would the saying be more common, out of curiosity?
It’s reasonably common among engineers in my experience. Along with SWAG—scientific wild-assed guessed, intended to denote something that has minimal support—an estimation that is the output of combining WAGs and actual data, for example.
He may not have known it, but it’s used. I worked in Catastrophe Risk modeling, and it was a term that applied to what our clients and competitors did; not ourselves, we had rigorous methodologies that were not discussed because they were “trade secrets,” or as I came to understand, what is referred to below as SWAG.
I have heard engineers use it as well..