I would say I’m about 75% confident that (.65C3 -.35C1) < (.65C4-.35C2)… But one of the reasons I don’t even want to play that game is that I feel I am completely unqualified to estimate probabilities about that, and most other things. I would have no idea how to go about estimating the probability of, for example, the Singularity occurring before 2050...much less how to compensate for biases in my estimate.
I think I also have somewhat of an ick reaction towards the concept of “tricking” people to get what you want, even if in a very subtle form. I just...like...being honest, and it’s hard for me to tell if my arguments about honesty being better are rationalizations because I don’t want being dishonest to be justifiable.
The way to bridge that gap is to only volunteer predictions when you’re quite confident, and otherwise stay quiet, change the subject, or murmur a polite assent. You’re absolutely right that explicitly declaring a 65% confidence estimate will make you look indecisive—but people aren’t likely to notice that you make predictions less often than other people—they’ll be too focused on how when you do make predictions, you have an uncanny tendency to be correct...and also that you’re pleasantly modest and demure, too.
I would say I’m about 75% confident that (.65C3 -.35C1) < (.65C4-.35C2)… But one of the reasons I don’t even want to play that game is that I feel I am completely unqualified to estimate probabilities about that, and most other things. I would have no idea how to go about estimating the probability of, for example, the Singularity occurring before 2050...much less how to compensate for biases in my estimate.
I think I also have somewhat of an ick reaction towards the concept of “tricking” people to get what you want, even if in a very subtle form. I just...like...being honest, and it’s hard for me to tell if my arguments about honesty being better are rationalizations because I don’t want being dishonest to be justifiable.
The way to bridge that gap is to only volunteer predictions when you’re quite confident, and otherwise stay quiet, change the subject, or murmur a polite assent. You’re absolutely right that explicitly declaring a 65% confidence estimate will make you look indecisive—but people aren’t likely to notice that you make predictions less often than other people—they’ll be too focused on how when you do make predictions, you have an uncanny tendency to be correct...and also that you’re pleasantly modest and demure, too.
(nods) That makes sense.