Mostly because its not actually true. If bluffing only worked 1% of the time, then no-one would bluff, so people would just fold mediocre hands against bets, so bluffing works again. If you solved some simplfied version of poker, so everyone is playing according to the exact Nash equibrium, there would still be plenty of bluffing.
That was four years ago, but I’m pretty sure I was using hyperbole. Pros don’t bluff often, and when they do they are only expecting to break even, but I doubt it’s as low as 2% (the bluff will fail half the time).
I’d also put in a caveat that the best hand wins among hands that make it all the way to the river. There are plenty of times where a horrible hand like a 6 2, which is an instant fold if you respect the skills of your fellow players, ends up hitting a straight by the river and being the best hand but obviously didn’t win. Certainly more often than 1%, and there are plenty of better hands that you still almost always fold pre-flop that are going to hit more often.
So, at best it was poorly stated (i.e. hyperbole without saying so), at worst it’s just wrong.
I know you’re using hyperbole, but I’m going to do the calculations anyway :)
If you bet a fraction x of the pot, with prob p of winning, and no outs, then your EV is p-(1-p)x. Clearly, EV>0 for optimal play, and a half-pot sized bet is common, so p-(1-p)/2>0 ⇒ p>1/3.
So the bluff should succeed at least 1⁄3 of the time.
Now suppose I have made some large bets, and you think I have at least JJ with 95% prob, and am bluffing with junk with 5% prob. I think you can beat JJ with 30% probability. I might chose to bet half the pot with all my possible hands (I’m now playing a probability distribution, not a hand), in which case you have to fold with 70% of your hands because 0.05 (1+0.5)<0.95 1. So in this case, my bluff succeeds 70% of the time, with EV 0.7-(1-0.7)/2=0.55.
Of course this is a massively simplified example.
Apparently, according to a book I read, if two pros playing head up no-limit are dealt 9 4, the author estimated that the person who has position (plays second) has around 2⁄3 chance of winning by bluffing his opponent off the hand, and of course the person who plays first might win by bluffing as well. So this seems to indicate that there is a reasonable chance to win by bluffing.
Overall, I think pros don’t make so many dramatic all-in bluffs, and in fact tend to semi-bluff, by betting with hands that have outs anyway.
Mostly because its not actually true. If bluffing only worked 1% of the time, then no-one would bluff, so people would just fold mediocre hands against bets, so bluffing works again. If you solved some simplfied version of poker, so everyone is playing according to the exact Nash equibrium, there would still be plenty of bluffing.
That was four years ago, but I’m pretty sure I was using hyperbole. Pros don’t bluff often, and when they do they are only expecting to break even, but I doubt it’s as low as 2% (the bluff will fail half the time).
I’d also put in a caveat that the best hand wins among hands that make it all the way to the river. There are plenty of times where a horrible hand like a 6 2, which is an instant fold if you respect the skills of your fellow players, ends up hitting a straight by the river and being the best hand but obviously didn’t win. Certainly more often than 1%, and there are plenty of better hands that you still almost always fold pre-flop that are going to hit more often.
So, at best it was poorly stated (i.e. hyperbole without saying so), at worst it’s just wrong.
I know you’re using hyperbole, but I’m going to do the calculations anyway :) If you bet a fraction x of the pot, with prob p of winning, and no outs, then your EV is p-(1-p)x. Clearly, EV>0 for optimal play, and a half-pot sized bet is common, so p-(1-p)/2>0 ⇒ p>1/3.
So the bluff should succeed at least 1⁄3 of the time.
Now suppose I have made some large bets, and you think I have at least JJ with 95% prob, and am bluffing with junk with 5% prob. I think you can beat JJ with 30% probability. I might chose to bet half the pot with all my possible hands (I’m now playing a probability distribution, not a hand), in which case you have to fold with 70% of your hands because 0.05 (1+0.5)<0.95 1. So in this case, my bluff succeeds 70% of the time, with EV 0.7-(1-0.7)/2=0.55.
Of course this is a massively simplified example.
Apparently, according to a book I read, if two pros playing head up no-limit are dealt 9 4, the author estimated that the person who has position (plays second) has around 2⁄3 chance of winning by bluffing his opponent off the hand, and of course the person who plays first might win by bluffing as well. So this seems to indicate that there is a reasonable chance to win by bluffing.
Overall, I think pros don’t make so many dramatic all-in bluffs, and in fact tend to semi-bluff, by betting with hands that have outs anyway.