The scenarios I think are most likely (my guess of order of likelihood):
1 - Russia / Ukraine peace deal, involving Ukraine officially ceding Crimea and maybe some/all of these other annexations to Russia in exchange for an end to hostilities/maybe something else. (Russia would say no, but it would be hilarious for Ukraine to ask for the gift of an independent, Russian-made, nuclear deterrent in exchange for the territory. “In 1990′s we gave up our nukes for a piece of paper you gave us guaranteeing our territory. the paper did not work, so this time you will guarantee the new boarders by giving us nuclear weapons”—LOGIC).
2 - Russia actually just “wins” the war, for some value of “wins”.
3 - Ukraine “wins”, retakes the territory, it turns out the nuclear stuff was a bluff.
4 - Ukraine moves into the territory, Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon to blow up a random field with a few-dozen Ukrainian troops in it to make a point. Most of the world condemns the attack, sanctions ramp up. Then we flip straight back to (1).
5 - Some kind of political upset in Russia (either protests or whatever) results in the Russians just withdrawing.
6 - WW3. Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Somehow (probably through several layers of escalation and opportunities to turn back) we end up at nuclear Armageddon. New Zealand inherits the Earth. PM Jacinda Ardern is declared world-queen and decides that the entire smoking ruin of the northern hemisphere can morally belong to Ukraine.
I have very low certainty on the order I have put most of the adjacent numbers. But I am reassured by the fact that in most cases I am confident that I am putting next adjacents (4-6) in the right order. I would be curious to know of any outcomes I might be missing, or if anyone has them in a radically different order.
Perhaps leaving out a Ukraine largely winning but not quite, Russia increasingly seems ready to use nukes but the UN (perhaps with China, India, Turkiye (sp?) and NATO working together) steps in under some agreed armistice that resulted in withdrawal of soldiers & weapons from all parties involve.
That and perhaps even that in conjunction with an acceptable UN independent, objectively managed referendum on status of disputed areas.
The scenarios I think are most likely (my guess of order of likelihood):
1 - Russia / Ukraine peace deal, involving Ukraine officially ceding Crimea and maybe some/all of these other annexations to Russia in exchange for an end to hostilities/maybe something else. (Russia would say no, but it would be hilarious for Ukraine to ask for the gift of an independent, Russian-made, nuclear deterrent in exchange for the territory. “In 1990′s we gave up our nukes for a piece of paper you gave us guaranteeing our territory. the paper did not work, so this time you will guarantee the new boarders by giving us nuclear weapons”—LOGIC).
2 - Russia actually just “wins” the war, for some value of “wins”.
3 - Ukraine “wins”, retakes the territory, it turns out the nuclear stuff was a bluff.
4 - Ukraine moves into the territory, Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon to blow up a random field with a few-dozen Ukrainian troops in it to make a point. Most of the world condemns the attack, sanctions ramp up. Then we flip straight back to (1).
5 - Some kind of political upset in Russia (either protests or whatever) results in the Russians just withdrawing.
6 - WW3. Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Somehow (probably through several layers of escalation and opportunities to turn back) we end up at nuclear Armageddon. New Zealand inherits the Earth. PM Jacinda Ardern is declared world-queen and decides that the entire smoking ruin of the northern hemisphere can morally belong to Ukraine.
I have very low certainty on the order I have put most of the adjacent numbers. But I am reassured by the fact that in most cases I am confident that I am putting next adjacents (4-6) in the right order. I would be curious to know of any outcomes I might be missing, or if anyone has them in a radically different order.
I have the same order, with this option above 1.
0 - Korean War style ceasefire without peace deal.
I don’t have the same order, but tend to agree that option 0 is the most likely one.
Perhaps leaving out a Ukraine largely winning but not quite, Russia increasingly seems ready to use nukes but the UN (perhaps with China, India, Turkiye (sp?) and NATO working together) steps in under some agreed armistice that resulted in withdrawal of soldiers & weapons from all parties involve.
That and perhaps even that in conjunction with an acceptable UN independent, objectively managed referendum on status of disputed areas.
Not sure if that would belong under 1 or after 6.