The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training. So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.
The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training.
So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.