In before someone points out the technicalities that Russia uses as an excuse why Budapest memorandum and Minsk agreements do not matter: yes, you have a point! And my point is that whatever agreement would be signed now, Russia would find a similar technicality in the future.
The fact that the USA and Europe broke the Budapest memorandum before Russia broke it with Belarus, seems to me a bit more like a technicality.
Ok, so how does this apply to current events? From Russian perspective, there is no fundamental difference between “people in Ukraine overthrow their government and decide to move towards EU and NATO” and “Russia organizes a sham referendum in occupied parts of Ukraine where people vote at gunpoint and the votes are probably not even really counted because the results are already known in advance”.
People in Russia don’t believe it’s a sham referendum but that the population in Donetsk and Luhansk actually wants to be part of Russia. The absence of any reporting of opinion polls about what the real election results would be in Western media suggests that Western media outlets also believe that the referendum would come out as being pro-Russian if done fair and square.
I did talk with one Russian friend who lives in Berlin for five years and have an idea of the Russian perspective from that. She isn’t pro-war and did volunteer to help Ukrainian refugees. Still she believes, that Ukraine killed Russian-speaking inhabitants within Donetsk and Luhansk during the civil war in an amount that required Russian intervention. She believes that Ukraine destroyed houses without military necessity because a relative of a good friend reported observing that on the ground.
I think you are wrong if you model Russian opinion as being mainly derived from what their media says. You likely have a lot of “friend of a friend” who lives in Donetsk and Luhansk and wants it to be part of Russia. Of course, that filters for the opinion of Russian-speaking Ukrainians with ties to Russia and not the average Ukrainian but it’s still part of what drives the support for the war among the Russian population.
What I don’t get is how can Russians still see it as a civil war? The truth came out by now: Strelkov, Motorola were Russians. The separatists were led and supplied by Russia. It was a war between Russia and Ukraine from the start. I once argued with a Russian man about it, I told him about fresh graves of Russian soldiers that Lev Schlosberg found in Pskov in 2014. He asked me: “If there are Russian troops in Ukraine, why didn’t BBC write about it?”. I didn’t know, so I checked as soon as I had internet access, and BBC did write about it... So I don’t see how can anyone sincerely believe that this was ever a Ukrainian internal conflict. Egor Holmogorov said: “For our sacred mission, the whole country should lie [about our soldiers fighting in Donbas]”. And I get the feeling that’s what exactly what people do.
Still she believes, that Ukraine killed Russian-speaking inhabitants within Donetsk and Luhansk during the civil war in an amount that required Russian intervention.
According to Wikipedia, Russia had (unmarked) soldiers in Ukraine since February 27th 2014.
Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence in April 2014.
(The “crucified boy” hoax was published in July 2014. The pro-Russian people in my bubble first denied the presence of Russian soldiers, and later used this as a justification for their presence.)
EDIT:
What people want may change over years and decades, but in the 1991 referendum most people votes Yes for independent Ukraine. I assume that if you want your region to remain in Russia, you would not vote for independence of a piece of land that includes your region.
The fact that the USA and Europe broke the Budapest memorandum before Russia broke it with Belarus, seems to me a bit more like a technicality.
People in Russia don’t believe it’s a sham referendum but that the population in Donetsk and Luhansk actually wants to be part of Russia. The absence of any reporting of opinion polls about what the real election results would be in Western media suggests that Western media outlets also believe that the referendum would come out as being pro-Russian if done fair and square.
I did talk with one Russian friend who lives in Berlin for five years and have an idea of the Russian perspective from that. She isn’t pro-war and did volunteer to help Ukrainian refugees. Still she believes, that Ukraine killed Russian-speaking inhabitants within Donetsk and Luhansk during the civil war in an amount that required Russian intervention. She believes that Ukraine destroyed houses without military necessity because a relative of a good friend reported observing that on the ground.
I think you are wrong if you model Russian opinion as being mainly derived from what their media says. You likely have a lot of “friend of a friend” who lives in Donetsk and Luhansk and wants it to be part of Russia. Of course, that filters for the opinion of Russian-speaking Ukrainians with ties to Russia and not the average Ukrainian but it’s still part of what drives the support for the war among the Russian population.
What I don’t get is how can Russians still see it as a civil war? The truth came out by now: Strelkov, Motorola were Russians. The separatists were led and supplied by Russia. It was a war between Russia and Ukraine from the start. I once argued with a Russian man about it, I told him about fresh graves of Russian soldiers that Lev Schlosberg found in Pskov in 2014. He asked me: “If there are Russian troops in Ukraine, why didn’t BBC write about it?”. I didn’t know, so I checked as soon as I had internet access, and BBC did write about it...
So I don’t see how can anyone sincerely believe that this was ever a Ukrainian internal conflict. Egor Holmogorov said: “For our sacred mission, the whole country should lie [about our soldiers fighting in Donbas]”. And I get the feeling that’s what exactly what people do.
According to Wikipedia, Russia had (unmarked) soldiers in Ukraine since February 27th 2014.
Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence in April 2014.
(The “crucified boy” hoax was published in July 2014. The pro-Russian people in my bubble first denied the presence of Russian soldiers, and later used this as a justification for their presence.)
EDIT:
What people want may change over years and decades, but in the 1991 referendum most people votes Yes for independent Ukraine. I assume that if you want your region to remain in Russia, you would not vote for independence of a piece of land that includes your region.