Bayesian probability (which is the kind Yudkowsky is using when he gives the probability of AI doom) is subjective, referring to one’s degree of belief in a proposition, and cannot be 0% or 100%. If you’re using probability to refer to the objective proportion of future Everett branches something occurs in, you are using it in a very different way than most, and probabilities in that system cannot be compared to Yudkowsky’s probabilities.
If you’re talking about Everett branches, you are talking about objective probability. What I am talking about doesn’t come into it, because I don’t use “Everett branch” to mean “probable outcome”.
What are you talking about then? It seems like you’re talking about probabilities as being the objective proportion of worlds something happen in in some sort of multiverse theory, even if it’s not the Everett multiverse. And when you said “There won’t be any iff there is a 100.0000% probability of annihilation” you were replying to a comment talking about whether there will be any Everett branches where humans survive, so it was reasonable for me to think you were talking about Everett branches.
Bayesian probability (which is the kind Yudkowsky is using when he gives the probability of AI doom) is subjective, referring to one’s degree of belief in a proposition, and cannot be 0% or 100%. If you’re using probability to refer to the objective proportion of future Everett branches something occurs in, you are using it in a very different way than most, and probabilities in that system cannot be compared to Yudkowsky’s probabilities.
If you’re talking about Everett branches, you are talking about objective probability. What I am talking about doesn’t come into it, because I don’t use “Everett branch” to mean “probable outcome”.
What are you talking about then? It seems like you’re talking about probabilities as being the objective proportion of worlds something happen in in some sort of multiverse theory, even if it’s not the Everett multiverse. And when you said “There won’t be any iff there is a 100.0000% probability of annihilation” you were replying to a comment talking about whether there will be any Everett branches where humans survive, so it was reasonable for me to think you were talking about Everett branches.
If I’m not talking about objective probabilities, I’m talking about subjective probabilities. Or both.