I do not have a lot of evidence or detailed thinking to support this viewpoint, but I think I agree with you. I have the general sense that anthropic probabilities like this do not necessarily have well-defined values.
I’m definitely open to that possibility, but it seems like we don’t really have a way of reliably distinguishing these sorts of anthropic probabilities out from like, ‘conventional’ probabilities? I’d guess it’s tangled up with the reference class selection problem.
I do not have a lot of evidence or detailed thinking to support this viewpoint, but I think I agree with you. I have the general sense that anthropic probabilities like this do not necessarily have well-defined values.
I’m definitely open to that possibility, but it seems like we don’t really have a way of reliably distinguishing these sorts of anthropic probabilities out from like, ‘conventional’ probabilities? I’d guess it’s tangled up with the reference class selection problem.