The great filter argument and Fermi’s paradox take into account the speed of light, and the size and age of the galaxy. Both figure that there has been plenty of time for aliens to colonize the galaxy even if they traveled at, say, 1% of the speed of light. If our galaxy were much younger or the space between star systems much bigger there would not be a Fermi paradox and we wouldn’t need fear the great filter.
To directly answer the question of your second sentence, yes but only by a very small amount.
I think that reading this and thinking it over helped me figure out a confusing math error I was making. Thank you!
Normally, to calculate the odds of a false negative, I would need the test accuracy, but I would also need the base rate.
I.E, If a test for the presence or absence of colonization is 99% accurate, and the base rate for evidence of colonization is present in 1% of stars, and my test is negative, then I can compute the odds of a false negative.
However, in this case, I was attempting to determine “Given that our tests aren’t perfectly accurate, what if the base rate of colonization isn’t 0%?” and while that may be a valid question, I was using the wrong math to work on it, and it was leading me to conclusions that didn’t make a shred of sense.
The great filter argument and Fermi’s paradox take into account the speed of light, and the size and age of the galaxy. Both figure that there has been plenty of time for aliens to colonize the galaxy even if they traveled at, say, 1% of the speed of light. If our galaxy were much younger or the space between star systems much bigger there would not be a Fermi paradox and we wouldn’t need fear the great filter.
To directly answer the question of your second sentence, yes but only by a very small amount.
I think that reading this and thinking it over helped me figure out a confusing math error I was making. Thank you!
Normally, to calculate the odds of a false negative, I would need the test accuracy, but I would also need the base rate.
I.E, If a test for the presence or absence of colonization is 99% accurate, and the base rate for evidence of colonization is present in 1% of stars, and my test is negative, then I can compute the odds of a false negative.
However, in this case, I was attempting to determine “Given that our tests aren’t perfectly accurate, what if the base rate of colonization isn’t 0%?” and while that may be a valid question, I was using the wrong math to work on it, and it was leading me to conclusions that didn’t make a shred of sense.