I don’t think Eliezer meant to say that breakthrough technologies always seem 50 years off or impossible until they are invented.
I don’t think JoshuaZ meant to say Eliezer meant to say that. It seems more like he just meant that the list feels cherry-picked; that the examples given seem to be chosen for their suitability to the argument rather than because they form a compelling signal when compared against other relevant data points.
I don’t think JoshuaZ meant to say Eliezer meant to say that. It seems more like he just meant that the list feels cherry-picked; that the examples given seem to be chosen for their suitability to the argument rather than because they form a compelling signal when compared against other relevant data points.