Now I’m wondering how this kind of bias operates outside of science, and specifically with what confidence we can expect insane things to be disregarded.
More in detail, I’m wondering how long homeopathy can survive while all experts can attest that it’s not useful.
The case of Miracle Mineral Supplement which Eliezer mentioned recently, seems to show that people will stop doing absurd things, when it is shown exactly how absurd they are.
The question is, how long does it take for this to happen? After all, people still read horoscopes!
What proportion of people read horoscopes for entertainment rather than taking astrology seriously? It might be plausible that there’s something unhealthy about reading horoscopes at all if you have a sense of personal application, but that might need some proof.
It is true that the vast, vast majority of people don’t take horoscopes seriously, but still, they do in fact take up resources which could be freed up and better employed elsewhere; even if it’s just some guy working at a newspaper who can now enjoy some more time to edit his other articles, I think it would still be a better state for the world to be in.
I haven’t done even the simplest back-of-the-envelope calculations for it, so take that statement as fuzzy and dubious.
Also, I suppose it just bugs me it is treated even jokingly as something that can work...I actually need to work on being more flexible and less rude/cruel/pedantic, I suppose.
What time of year you’re born can have an impact on personality, due to environmental factors on early development. Also, newspaper horoscopes are a potentially useful source of nonspecific but authoritative-sounding advice to go out and do something. Enough people might need to be told that on a regular basis to justify the societal costs involved.
True, but I don’t think the people writing horoscopes know or care about the influences your date of birth has or will have in your life.
And as for the societal costs...I think they’re worse than they appear at first glance, since they foster an attitude of “magic has been proven not to exist, but who cares, let’s believe in it anyway!” of which I’m afraid
What time of year you’re born can have an impact on personality, due to environmental factors on early development.
Totally. I was born near Christmas. This means I on average got slightly less presents. I may have been scarred for life. Or perhaps the trivial hardship prepared me for challenges and contributed to me accepting the unfairness of life. Something.
I don’t think this will die soon, similar to many other obscure types of “medicine”. Proper medical treatments can fail, and in that case many are looking for alternatives. Add some “$person was treated with §method and $symptom went away!”-”confirmations”, and you have a market for that.
If a person (a) is poorly, (b) receives treatment intended to make him better, and (c) gets better, then no power of reasoning known to medical science can convince him that it may not have been the treatment that restored his health.
Now I’m wondering how this kind of bias operates outside of science, and specifically with what confidence we can expect insane things to be disregarded.
More in detail, I’m wondering how long homeopathy can survive while all experts can attest that it’s not useful. The case of Miracle Mineral Supplement which Eliezer mentioned recently, seems to show that people will stop doing absurd things, when it is shown exactly how absurd they are. The question is, how long does it take for this to happen? After all, people still read horoscopes!
What proportion of people read horoscopes for entertainment rather than taking astrology seriously? It might be plausible that there’s something unhealthy about reading horoscopes at all if you have a sense of personal application, but that might need some proof.
It is true that the vast, vast majority of people don’t take horoscopes seriously, but still, they do in fact take up resources which could be freed up and better employed elsewhere; even if it’s just some guy working at a newspaper who can now enjoy some more time to edit his other articles, I think it would still be a better state for the world to be in.
I haven’t done even the simplest back-of-the-envelope calculations for it, so take that statement as fuzzy and dubious.
Also, I suppose it just bugs me it is treated even jokingly as something that can work...I actually need to work on being more flexible and less rude/cruel/pedantic, I suppose.
What time of year you’re born can have an impact on personality, due to environmental factors on early development. Also, newspaper horoscopes are a potentially useful source of nonspecific but authoritative-sounding advice to go out and do something. Enough people might need to be told that on a regular basis to justify the societal costs involved.
True, but I don’t think the people writing horoscopes know or care about the influences your date of birth has or will have in your life. And as for the societal costs...I think they’re worse than they appear at first glance, since they foster an attitude of “magic has been proven not to exist, but who cares, let’s believe in it anyway!” of which I’m afraid
Totally. I was born near Christmas. This means I on average got slightly less presents. I may have been scarred for life. Or perhaps the trivial hardship prepared me for challenges and contributed to me accepting the unfairness of life. Something.
I don’t think this will die soon, similar to many other obscure types of “medicine”. Proper medical treatments can fail, and in that case many are looking for alternatives. Add some “$person was treated with §method and $symptom went away!”-”confirmations”, and you have a market for that.
-- Sir Peter Medawar, “The Art of the Soluble”