I think that it feels empty. If you have or have not got luck, then I doubt it will change by me saying so. It also implies that it’s not down to you, but to some sort of chance.
Similar with ‘I hope things get better’. I’m certainly not helping you.
Instead of ‘good luck’, I tend to say something like “I know you’re a capable person, and I expect you to do well. Do not worry, because I have taken the outside view for you, and told you it looks good.”
Instead of ‘I hope things get better’ I tend to say something along the lines of “I want you to know that I and others are here to help you if you need it, so try not to worry”.
There’s two very different reasons to say phrases, and your suggestions here are for something different than the circumstances you say “Good luck” in.
Sort of similar to the phrase “What’s up?” or “How are you doing?”—the purpose is not to respond with a detailed (or even short but accurate) explanation of how you’re doing. You’re supposed to say “fine, you?”
You’re not exchanging information, you are engaging in a short social bonding ritual in which you acknowledge each other’s presence and familiarity before either moving on (either to a real conversation, small talk, getting down to some particular task, or parting ways). On special occasions, when it’s the right time, you might actually inquire “Hey, how have you been doing lately? Haven’t seen you a while?” and then one would respond with a serious, informative answer.
Similarly, “Good luck” is not (usually) a heartfelt thing you say to earnestly convey how you wish someone to do, it’s a reflexive thing you say in the midst of a complex social situation. When you do want to earnestly convey a heartfelt wellwishing, you probably want to take the time to come up with something customized to the situation rather than a short, memorizable catchphrase.
The issue (as I understand it, anyway), is that one might want to build up a repertoire of short social-glue catchphrases that collectively build up certain ideas, or don’t promote ideas you don’t like. For example, “God Bless”, even by earnest believers, is mostly an empty phrase you use as social-glue, not an earnest expression of the desire for God to bless someone, but it still over time builds up a normalcy of “God is important.”
I think “Good luck” is reasonable (rationalists should believe in luck), but if we do want to promoting skill, specifically, then it may be good to find something easy to say, short, which emphasizes that.
The most usual Italian phrase for wishing someone well (in situations where skills do play a sizeable role compared to random chance, otherwise we say ‘good luck’ as well) literally means ‘in the wolf’s mouth’ (don’t ask). So, guess how much I can care about the literal meaning of such phrases! :-)
It also implies that it’s not down to you, but to some sort of chance.
Outcomes of our actions are influenced by our actions, and are also influenced by external forces—often ones we don’t know about in advance. Believing that fact can plausibly have a negative impact on one’s motivation and performance. But there is also a positive aspect to having your locus of control moved outward, other than the whole accurate beliefs thing: a poor outcome is less indicative of poor performance, and a very good outcome doesn’t have to reflect an outlier performance one is doomed to regressed away from, but merely an outlier event, unrelated to your skill level—a skill level which surely isn’t waning to the detriment of your performance in status-granting contests, no sir.
Why not “good luck”?
Seconding this question. It’s not at all clear to me that rationalists should shun the concept of luck.
I agree. See Richard Wiseman’s “The Luck Factor”, Skeptical Inquirer (May/June, 2003). Wiseman is a public psychologist, paranormal investigator and author of 59 Seconds (free copy; Anki deck), arguably the best scientific self-help book out there.
EDIT: I just saw that Trevor_Blake had already posted a link to Wiseman’s paper on luck.
I think that it feels empty. If you have or have not got luck, then I doubt it will change by me saying so. It also implies that it’s not down to you, but to some sort of chance.
Similar with ‘I hope things get better’. I’m certainly not helping you.
Instead of ‘good luck’, I tend to say something like “I know you’re a capable person, and I expect you to do well. Do not worry, because I have taken the outside view for you, and told you it looks good.”
Instead of ‘I hope things get better’ I tend to say something along the lines of “I want you to know that I and others are here to help you if you need it, so try not to worry”.
There’s two very different reasons to say phrases, and your suggestions here are for something different than the circumstances you say “Good luck” in.
Sort of similar to the phrase “What’s up?” or “How are you doing?”—the purpose is not to respond with a detailed (or even short but accurate) explanation of how you’re doing. You’re supposed to say “fine, you?”
You’re not exchanging information, you are engaging in a short social bonding ritual in which you acknowledge each other’s presence and familiarity before either moving on (either to a real conversation, small talk, getting down to some particular task, or parting ways). On special occasions, when it’s the right time, you might actually inquire “Hey, how have you been doing lately? Haven’t seen you a while?” and then one would respond with a serious, informative answer.
Similarly, “Good luck” is not (usually) a heartfelt thing you say to earnestly convey how you wish someone to do, it’s a reflexive thing you say in the midst of a complex social situation. When you do want to earnestly convey a heartfelt wellwishing, you probably want to take the time to come up with something customized to the situation rather than a short, memorizable catchphrase.
The issue (as I understand it, anyway), is that one might want to build up a repertoire of short social-glue catchphrases that collectively build up certain ideas, or don’t promote ideas you don’t like. For example, “God Bless”, even by earnest believers, is mostly an empty phrase you use as social-glue, not an earnest expression of the desire for God to bless someone, but it still over time builds up a normalcy of “God is important.”
I think “Good luck” is reasonable (rationalists should believe in luck), but if we do want to promoting skill, specifically, then it may be good to find something easy to say, short, which emphasizes that.
The most usual Italian phrase for wishing someone well (in situations where skills do play a sizeable role compared to random chance, otherwise we say ‘good luck’ as well) literally means ‘in the wolf’s mouth’ (don’t ask). So, guess how much I can care about the literal meaning of such phrases! :-)
Outcomes of our actions are influenced by our actions, and are also influenced by external forces—often ones we don’t know about in advance. Believing that fact can plausibly have a negative impact on one’s motivation and performance. But there is also a positive aspect to having your locus of control moved outward, other than the whole accurate beliefs thing: a poor outcome is less indicative of poor performance, and a very good outcome doesn’t have to reflect an outlier performance one is doomed to regressed away from, but merely an outlier event, unrelated to your skill level—a skill level which surely isn’t waning to the detriment of your performance in status-granting contests, no sir.