This question resolves as Yes if, within five years of the first transformative AI being deployed, more than 50% of world economic output can be attributed to the single most powerful AI system. The question resolves as No otherwise… [defintion:] TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year.
Which is in agreement with your claim that ruling out a multipolar scenario is unjustifiable given current evidence.
Metaculus is at 45% of singleton in the sense of:
Which is in agreement with your claim that ruling out a multipolar scenario is unjustifiable given current evidence.