I thought I did respond to your human capital waste example. Can you clarify the mechanism you’re proposing? Maybe it wasn’t clear to me.
With regard to the massive complexity argument, I think this points to a broader issue. Sometimes, we feel confident about the macroeconomic impact of X on Y. For example, people in the know seem pretty confident that the US insourcing the chip industry is bad for AI capability and thus good for AI safety. What is it that causes us to be confidently uncertain due to a “massive complexity” argument in the case of longevity, but mildly confident in the sign of the intervention in the case of chip insourcing?
I don’t know your view on chip insourcing, but I think it’s relevant to the argument whether you’d also make a “massive complexity” argument for that issue or not.
Edit: I misclicked submit too early. Will finish replying in another comment.
I thought I did respond to your human capital waste example. Can you clarify the mechanism you’re proposing? Maybe it wasn’t clear to me.
With regard to the massive complexity argument, I think this points to a broader issue. Sometimes, we feel confident about the macroeconomic impact of X on Y. For example, people in the know seem pretty confident that the US insourcing the chip industry is bad for AI capability and thus good for AI safety. What is it that causes us to be confidently uncertain due to a “massive complexity” argument in the case of longevity, but mildly confident in the sign of the intervention in the case of chip insourcing?
I don’t know your view on chip insourcing, but I think it’s relevant to the argument whether you’d also make a “massive complexity” argument for that issue or not.
Edit: I misclicked submit too early. Will finish replying in another comment.