He may claim he is not willing to sell you this futures contract for $0.48 now. He expects to be willing to sell for that price in the future on average, but might refuse to do so now.
But then, why? Why would you not sell something for $0.49 now if you think, on average, it’ll be worth less than that (to you) right after?
I think your argument is quite effective.
He may claim he is not willing to sell you this futures contract for $0.48 now. He expects to be willing to sell for that price in the future on average, but might refuse to do so now.
But then, why? Why would you not sell something for $0.49 now if you think, on average, it’ll be worth less than that (to you) right after?