Indeed. I, for one, found myself genuinely surprised by the last word of RobinZ’s introduction and had a reaction similar to that of Hofstadter upon finding the answer to the surgeon riddle.
RobinZ illustrates a good point about race-consciousness, though. I was in the Boy Scouts myself, worked at 2 camps, and have seen some demographic data, and the simple fact is: the Boy Scouts are as white as sour cream. It’s not just that there are/were more white Americans than blacks, it’s that whites participate at a vastly higher rate. From a Bayesian perspective, shouldn’t we be surprised to learn that RobinZ is both black and a Boy Scout?
(The Hofstadter example isn’t good for this point; Bayesianly, I think there are many more female surgeons than there are reincarnated-train-wreck-victim-surgeons, so thinking about the latter before the former is just biased and stupid.)
I hate to confess this, but I got stuck on a similar problem, in which the solution was “The secretary is the boy’s father.” (I kept thinking of divorces and such.)
Indeed. I, for one, found myself genuinely surprised by the last word of RobinZ’s introduction and had a reaction similar to that of Hofstadter upon finding the answer to the surgeon riddle.
Hah! I almost didn’t include that word—now I’m glad I did.
RobinZ illustrates a good point about race-consciousness, though. I was in the Boy Scouts myself, worked at 2 camps, and have seen some demographic data, and the simple fact is: the Boy Scouts are as white as sour cream. It’s not just that there are/were more white Americans than blacks, it’s that whites participate at a vastly higher rate. From a Bayesian perspective, shouldn’t we be surprised to learn that RobinZ is both black and a Boy Scout?
(The Hofstadter example isn’t good for this point; Bayesianly, I think there are many more female surgeons than there are reincarnated-train-wreck-victim-surgeons, so thinking about the latter before the former is just biased and stupid.)
I hate to confess this, but I got stuck on a similar problem, in which the solution was “The secretary is the boy’s father.” (I kept thinking of divorces and such.)
So yeah.