Here’s a bet then- Flip the coin nearest to you 100 times, and report the results. If you get 79 or fewer heads, then I will donate $20US to the cause of your choice (which may be you, personally). If you get 80 or more heads, then consider the possibility that I have the ability to alter the results of coin flips in a way which is unexplained by modern physics.
Or maybe I’m willing to gamble $20US on a very small chance (~half of six standard deviations, if I have the math right) that I can mindscrew you.
It would be a lot more than $50 more impressive (the few times it works) if she said “I bet you a dollar that it’s the three of clubs.”
I was also considering the ‘cider in my ear’ angle. Just because you don’t see any possible way that I could rig the bet, the fact that I proposed it is an indication above baseline that I might have.
Here’s a bet then- Flip the coin nearest to you 100 times, and report the results. If you get 79 or fewer heads, then I will donate $20US to the cause of your choice (which may be you, personally). If you get 80 or more heads, then consider the possibility that I have the ability to alter the results of coin flips in a way which is unexplained by modern physics.
Or maybe I’m willing to gamble $20US on a very small chance (~half of six standard deviations, if I have the math right) that I can mindscrew you.
I used to date a girl who had a favorite card trick: she would hand you a deck of cards, ask you to pick one, and say “is it the three of clubs?”
Her theory was that she’d be wrong most of the time, but when she was right it would be really impressive.
It would be a lot more than $50 more impressive (the few times it works) if she said “I bet you a dollar that it’s the three of clubs.”
I was also considering the ‘cider in my ear’ angle. Just because you don’t see any possible way that I could rig the bet, the fact that I proposed it is an indication above baseline that I might have.
See also.
I instantly thought about that, too.