Kindly comments on Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal’s Mugging

[Kindly]

Can you elaborate?

[jsteinhardt]

Markov’s inequality says that, if 0 ⇐ X ⇐ 1, then

P[X >= a] ⇐ E[X] /​ a

and that

P[X ⇐ a] ⇐ E[1-X] /​ (1-a)

These are directional statements, hence directionality of metaconfidence.