We can try to estimate New Harvest’s effectiveness using the same methodology attempted for SENS research in the comment by David Barry here. I can’t find New Harvest’s 990 revenue reports, but it’s donations are routed through the Network for Good, which has a total annual revenue of 150 million dollars, providing an upper bound. An annual revenue of less than 1000 dollars is very unlikely, so we can use the geometric mean of $400 000 per year as an estimated annual revenue. There are about 500 000 minutes in a year, so right now $1 brings development just over a minute closer.*
There currently 24 billion chicken, 1 billion cattle, and 1 billion pigs. Assuming the current factory farm suffering rates as an estimate for suffering rates when artificial/substitute meat becomes available, and assuming (as the OP does) that animals suffer roughly equally, then bringing faux meat one minute closer prevents about (25 billion animals)/(500 000 minutes per year) = 50 animal years of suffering.
If we assume that New Harvest has a 10% chance of success, $1 dollar there prevents an expected 5 animal years of suffering, or expressed as in the OP, preventing 1 expected animal year of suffering costs about 20 cents.
So, these (very rough) estimates show about similar levels of effectiveness.
*Assuming some set amount of money is necessary and the bottleneck and you aren’t donating enough for diminishing marginal returns.
I’ve wondered about this as well.
We can try to estimate New Harvest’s effectiveness using the same methodology attempted for SENS research in the comment by David Barry here. I can’t find New Harvest’s 990 revenue reports, but it’s donations are routed through the Network for Good, which has a total annual revenue of 150 million dollars, providing an upper bound. An annual revenue of less than 1000 dollars is very unlikely, so we can use the geometric mean of $400 000 per year as an estimated annual revenue. There are about 500 000 minutes in a year, so right now $1 brings development just over a minute closer.*
There currently 24 billion chicken, 1 billion cattle, and 1 billion pigs. Assuming the current factory farm suffering rates as an estimate for suffering rates when artificial/substitute meat becomes available, and assuming (as the OP does) that animals suffer roughly equally, then bringing faux meat one minute closer prevents about (25 billion animals)/(500 000 minutes per year) = 50 animal years of suffering.
If we assume that New Harvest has a 10% chance of success, $1 dollar there prevents an expected 5 animal years of suffering, or expressed as in the OP, preventing 1 expected animal year of suffering costs about 20 cents.
So, these (very rough) estimates show about similar levels of effectiveness.
*Assuming some set amount of money is necessary and the bottleneck and you aren’t donating enough for diminishing marginal returns.