The bit about desirability bias, or the fact that the optimistic estimates involve claiming that vegetarian ads are vastly more effective than other kinds of moralized behavior-change ads with more accurate measurements of effect?
Both points. The question “why should vegetarianism advocacy be so much more effective than get out the vote advocacy?” is a good point. Since the study quality for get out the vote advocacy is so much higher, we should expect vegetarianism advocacy to end up about the same.
On the other hand, I do think vegetarianism advocacy is a lot more psychologically salient (pictures of suffering) than any case that can be made for voting. I’ve personally distributed some pro-voting pamphlets, and they’re not very compelling at all.
Good points, Carl! Jonah Sinick actually made the GOTV argument to me on a prior occasion, citing your essay on the topic.
One additional consideration is that nearly everyone knows about voting, but many people don’t know about the cruelty of factory farms. This goes along with the low-hanging-fruit point.
I would not be surprised if, after tempering the figures by this outside-view prior, it takes a few hundred dollars to create a new veg year. Even if so, that’s at most 1-2 orders of magnitude different from the naive conservative estimate.
The bit about desirability bias, or the fact that the optimistic estimates involve claiming that vegetarian ads are vastly more effective than other kinds of moralized behavior-change ads with more accurate measurements of effect?
Both points. The question “why should vegetarianism advocacy be so much more effective than get out the vote advocacy?” is a good point. Since the study quality for get out the vote advocacy is so much higher, we should expect vegetarianism advocacy to end up about the same.
On the other hand, I do think vegetarianism advocacy is a lot more psychologically salient (pictures of suffering) than any case that can be made for voting. I’ve personally distributed some pro-voting pamphlets, and they’re not very compelling at all.
Good points, Carl! Jonah Sinick actually made the GOTV argument to me on a prior occasion, citing your essay on the topic.
One additional consideration is that nearly everyone knows about voting, but many people don’t know about the cruelty of factory farms. This goes along with the low-hanging-fruit point.
I would not be surprised if, after tempering the figures by this outside-view prior, it takes a few hundred dollars to create a new veg year. Even if so, that’s at most 1-2 orders of magnitude different from the naive conservative estimate.