Other options on the table are not mutually exclusive. There is a lot of wealth and intellectual brain power in the world, and a lot of things to work on. We can’t and shouldn’t all work on one most important problem. We can’t all work on the thousand most important problems. We can’t even agree on what those problems are.
I suspect Eliezer has a comparative advantage in working on this type of AI research, and he’s interested in it, so it makes sense for him to work on this. It especially makes sense to the extent that this is an area no one else is addressing. We’re only talking about an expenditure of several careers and a few million dollars. Compared to the world economy, or even compared to the non-profit sector, this is a drop in the bucket.
Now if instead Eliezer was the 10,000th smart person working on string theory, or if there was an Apollo-style government-funded initiative to develop an FAI by 2019, then my estimate of the comparative advantage of MIRI would shift. But given the facts as they are, MIRI seems like a plausible use of the limited resources it consumes.
I suspect Eliezer has a comparative advantage in working on this type of AI research, and he’s interested in it, so it makes sense for him to work on this.
If Eliezer feels that this is his comparative advantage then it’s fine for him to work on this sort of research — I’m not advocating that such research be stopped. My own impression is that Eliezer has comparative advantage in spreading rationality and that he could have a bigger impact by focusing on doing so.
It especially makes sense to the extent that this is an area no one else is addressing. We’re only talking about an expenditure of several careers and a few million dollars. Compared to the world economy, or even compared to the non-profit sector, this is a drop in the bucket.
I’m not arguing that such research shouldn’t be funded. The human capital question is genuinely more dicey, insofar as I think that Eliezer has contributed substantial value through his work on spreading rationality, and my best guess is that the opportunity cost of not doing more is large.
Other options on the table are not mutually exclusive. There is a lot of wealth and intellectual brain power in the world, and a lot of things to work on. We can’t and shouldn’t all work on one most important problem. We can’t all work on the thousand most important problems. We can’t even agree on what those problems are.
I suspect Eliezer has a comparative advantage in working on this type of AI research, and he’s interested in it, so it makes sense for him to work on this. It especially makes sense to the extent that this is an area no one else is addressing. We’re only talking about an expenditure of several careers and a few million dollars. Compared to the world economy, or even compared to the non-profit sector, this is a drop in the bucket.
Now if instead Eliezer was the 10,000th smart person working on string theory, or if there was an Apollo-style government-funded initiative to develop an FAI by 2019, then my estimate of the comparative advantage of MIRI would shift. But given the facts as they are, MIRI seems like a plausible use of the limited resources it consumes.
If Eliezer feels that this is his comparative advantage then it’s fine for him to work on this sort of research — I’m not advocating that such research be stopped. My own impression is that Eliezer has comparative advantage in spreading rationality and that he could have a bigger impact by focusing on doing so.
I’m not arguing that such research shouldn’t be funded. The human capital question is genuinely more dicey, insofar as I think that Eliezer has contributed substantial value through his work on spreading rationality, and my best guess is that the opportunity cost of not doing more is large.