I sort of agree with this abstractly and disagree on practice. I think we’re just very limited in what kinds of circumstances we can reasonably estimate / guess at. Even the above claim, “a big proportion of worlds where we survived, AGI probably gets delayed” is hard to reason about.
But I do kind of need the know the timescale I’m operating in when thinking about health and money and skill investments, etc. so I think you need to reason about it somehow.
I sort of agree with this abstractly and disagree on practice. I think we’re just very limited in what kinds of circumstances we can reasonably estimate / guess at. Even the above claim, “a big proportion of worlds where we survived, AGI probably gets delayed” is hard to reason about.
But I do kind of need the know the timescale I’m operating in when thinking about health and money and skill investments, etc. so I think you need to reason about it somehow.