There’s a Twitter thread claiming that there is statistical evidence that blood clots are unusually common in Germany after getting the AstraZeneca vaccine:
The PEI ran an “observed-versus-expected analysis”, comparing the # of such cases expected without vaccination in a 14-day period with the # of cases reported in those vaccinated with #AstraZeneca (1.6 million) in Germany. About 1 case would be expected, 7 were observed
I still think stopping vaccination is insane for several reasons:
According to this source, approximate 200 people are dying of COVID per day in Germany. Even if we assume that 6 out of every 1.6 million people who get the AZ vaccine get blood clots and die, that would be 365 deaths total in Germany or 2 days worth of COVID deaths.
According to this source, the survival rate of cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis is ~95%, and taking that into account, even if the 6 / 1.6 million number is correct, we would expect only 1/20th of those people to die of it, leading to approximately 20 people in Germany dying of this (again, vs ~200 people per day dying of COVID).
I’m still very skeptical that this 6 / 1.6 million number is actually correct since it’s a very small number and small numbers are possible to get by chance, especially if you’re doing multiple comparisons: Why are we only looking at the number for Germany? Wouldn’t this be reported if it had happened in France, or the UK, or...?
There’s a Twitter thread claiming that there is statistical evidence that blood clots are unusually common in Germany after getting the AstraZeneca vaccine:
I still think stopping vaccination is insane for several reasons:
According to this source, approximate 200 people are dying of COVID per day in Germany. Even if we assume that 6 out of every 1.6 million people who get the AZ vaccine get blood clots and die, that would be 365 deaths total in Germany or 2 days worth of COVID deaths.
According to this source, the survival rate of cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis is ~95%, and taking that into account, even if the 6 / 1.6 million number is correct, we would expect only 1/20th of those people to die of it, leading to approximately 20 people in Germany dying of this (again, vs ~200 people per day dying of COVID).
I’m still very skeptical that this 6 / 1.6 million number is actually correct since it’s a very small number and small numbers are possible to get by chance, especially if you’re doing multiple comparisons: Why are we only looking at the number for Germany? Wouldn’t this be reported if it had happened in France, or the UK, or...?