You should never see a well-calibrated person say something’s impossible for it to then happen. But you also shouldn’t expect Spock’s predictions in the episodes to be calibrated: when he predicts well and things go normally, that’s less interesting and therefore not likely to be the sort of thing an episode gets made about! (assuming that Star Trek doesn’t purport to show everything that happens to those people, which may or may not be right)
Chapter 6: How Sure Are You?
You should never see a well-calibrated person say something’s impossible for it to then happen. But you also shouldn’t expect Spock’s predictions in the episodes to be calibrated: when he predicts well and things go normally, that’s less interesting and therefore not likely to be the sort of thing an episode gets made about! (assuming that Star Trek doesn’t purport to show everything that happens to those people, which may or may not be right)
But they’d probably have to have years and years of correctly predicted boring missions to make up for the amount of incorrect 99% predictions, right?
Maybe the Star Trek universe has low key solved aging, so even though it doesn’t seem like years between episodes, it really is. :P