I think this is a reason why focusing on ‘calibration’ is sort of a mistake? Like, look, the thing it’s doing is making the probabilities you say useful to other people / explicit EV calculations that you do yourself. It’s one of the skills in the toolbox; you also want good concepts, you also want accuracy, and so on.
I think this is a reason why focusing on ‘calibration’ is sort of a mistake? Like, look, the thing it’s doing is making the probabilities you say useful to other people / explicit EV calculations that you do yourself. It’s one of the skills in the toolbox; you also want good concepts, you also want accuracy, and so on.