There probably is some reason why each particular bias or heuristic exists (since we are evolved beings). It must have hit some sweet spot of being beneficial in most situations in the ancestral environment, and being easy to compute given the already existing structures in the brain. So I thought it would be interesting to try steelmanning these as I read the list, and this turned out to be pretty easy for most of them.
For example, with number 4, it seems like the main problem here is that you just don’t have a very complete causal model of your body. When you do have a good causal model, this heuristic seems to just be an instance of Occam’s razor. This also suggests a potential remedy—first make a good causal model of the situation (which you should be doing anyway if it is important), then make sure that when you imagine possible futures, it goes through the model you developed, and doesn’t shortcut through preconceived notions or intuitions. And then, this heuristic should serve you well.
There probably is some reason why each particular bias or heuristic exists (since we are evolved beings). It must have hit some sweet spot of being beneficial in most situations in the ancestral environment, and being easy to compute given the already existing structures in the brain. So I thought it would be interesting to try steelmanning these as I read the list, and this turned out to be pretty easy for most of them.
For example, with number 4, it seems like the main problem here is that you just don’t have a very complete causal model of your body. When you do have a good causal model, this heuristic seems to just be an instance of Occam’s razor. This also suggests a potential remedy—first make a good causal model of the situation (which you should be doing anyway if it is important), then make sure that when you imagine possible futures, it goes through the model you developed, and doesn’t shortcut through preconceived notions or intuitions. And then, this heuristic should serve you well.