Until mid November the most infections happened in the Northern parts of England, went down there and took off in the South (ignoring Wales and N. Ireland for simplicity’s sake). Now, I see two possible scenarios:
With increased countermeasures in the South the case increase there is stopped and slowly recedes. Maybe a larger increase in the North due to less restrictions.
The cases in the South increase even more in spite of the countermeasures, followed by cases in the North.
So, what I would be watching is the ratio of the case rates per 100,000 in the South vs. in the North. If it continues to increase that’s a bad sign because in that case the increase in the South is quite likely caused by a more infectious strain and not merely the coincidence in time between a mutation and different behaviour.
When it comes to the UK the changes in this weekly map are quite interesting: Interactive Map Coronavirus UK
Until mid November the most infections happened in the Northern parts of England, went down there and took off in the South (ignoring Wales and N. Ireland for simplicity’s sake). Now, I see two possible scenarios:
With increased countermeasures in the South the case increase there is stopped and slowly recedes. Maybe a larger increase in the North due to less restrictions.
The cases in the South increase even more in spite of the countermeasures, followed by cases in the North.
So, what I would be watching is the ratio of the case rates per 100,000 in the South vs. in the North. If it continues to increase that’s a bad sign because in that case the increase in the South is quite likely caused by a more infectious strain and not merely the coincidence in time between a mutation and different behaviour.