PPaul answers What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating?

PPaul 28 Dec 2020 11:20 UTC
3 points
Here is a preprint of a simulation study fitting observed data to various models. (dated 23-12-2020) Best fit is increased transmission. I lack the qualification to judge its quality, but update towards higher transmission.

“We estimate that VOC ²⁰²⁰¹²⁄₀₁ is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.”
- PPaul 29 Dec 2020 13:57 UTC
  3 points
  Parent
  The updated PHE report found:
  228,361 (9.9% attack rate) of all contacts notified by cases in this period became cases:
  
  15.1% among those whose index case was confirmed to have the VOC [variant of concern] ²⁰²⁰¹²⁄₀₁
  9.8% among those whose index case was sequenced and confirmed with other variants