One thing that makes this disease hard to reason about is the high k. That is, most people infect a very small number of people but some people infect large numbers. When case numbers are less than a thousand we should’t expect a strong signal regardless of the underlying infectivity of the new strain. This is evidence against it being significant but I fear its not very strong evidence.
One thing that makes this disease hard to reason about is the high k. That is, most people infect a very small number of people but some people infect large numbers. When case numbers are less than a thousand we should’t expect a strong signal regardless of the underlying infectivity of the new strain. This is evidence against it being significant but I fear its not very strong evidence.