If you can actually notice the difference in economic development caused by the train, then the train is so insanely valuable that it would be blindingly obvious from looking at how often they’re built by the private sector.
I don’t understand the reasoning by which you conclude that if an effect is measurable it must be so overwhelmingly huge that you wouldn’t have to measure it.
On a much smaller scale, property values rise substantially in the neighborhood of light rail stations, but this value is not easily captured by whoever builds the rails. Despite the measurability of this created value, we do not find that “[light rail] is so insanely valuable that it would be blindingly obvious from looking at how often they’re built by the private sector.”
If the effect is measurable on an accurate but imprecise scale (such as the effect of a train on the economy), then it will be overwhelming on an inaccurate but precise scale (such as ticket sales).
You are suggesting we measure the utility of a single business by its effect on the entire economy. Unless my guesses of the relative sizes are way off, the cost of a train is tiny compared to the normal variation of the economy. In order for the effect to be noticeable, the train would have to pay for itself many, many times over. Ticket sales, and by extension the free market, might not be entirely accurate in judging the value of a train. But it’s not so inaccurate that an effect of that magnitude will go unnoticed.
Am I missing something? Are trains really valuable enough that they’d be noticed on the scale of cities?
Faster, more convenient transportation is what fares are charging for. Non-captured value is more complicated than that.
If the non-captured value is 20% of the captured value, it’s highly unlikely that trains will frequently be worth building, but rarely capture enough value. That would require that the true value stay within a very narrow area.
If it’s not a monopoly good, and marginal costs are close to average costs, then captured value will only go down as people build more trains, so that value not being captured doesn’t prevent trains from being built. If it is a monopoly good (I think it is, but I would appreciate it if some who actually knows tells me), and marginal costs are much lower than average costs, then a significant portion of the value will not be captured. Much more than 20%. It’s not entirely unreasonable that the true value is such that trains are rarely built when they should often be built.
That’s part of why I asked:
How much government help is necessary for a train to be built?
If the government is subsidizing it by, say, 20%, then the trains are likely worth while. If the government practically has to pay for the infrastructure to get people to operate trains, not so much.
Also, that comment isn’t really applicable to what you just posted it as a response to. It would fit better as a response to my last comment. The comment you responded to was just saying that unless the value of trains is orders of magnitude more than the cost, you’d never notice by looking at the economy.
I don’t understand the reasoning by which you conclude that if an effect is measurable it must be so overwhelmingly huge that you wouldn’t have to measure it.
On a much smaller scale, property values rise substantially in the neighborhood of light rail stations, but this value is not easily captured by whoever builds the rails. Despite the measurability of this created value, we do not find that “[light rail] is so insanely valuable that it would be blindingly obvious from looking at how often they’re built by the private sector.”
If the effect is measurable on an accurate but imprecise scale (such as the effect of a train on the economy), then it will be overwhelming on an inaccurate but precise scale (such as ticket sales).
You are suggesting we measure the utility of a single business by its effect on the entire economy. Unless my guesses of the relative sizes are way off, the cost of a train is tiny compared to the normal variation of the economy. In order for the effect to be noticeable, the train would have to pay for itself many, many times over. Ticket sales, and by extension the free market, might not be entirely accurate in judging the value of a train. But it’s not so inaccurate that an effect of that magnitude will go unnoticed.
Am I missing something? Are trains really valuable enough that they’d be noticed on the scale of cities?
Are you claiming that a scenario in which
Fares cover 90% of (construction + operating costs)
Faster, more convenient transportation creates non-captured value worth 20% of (construction + operating costs)
is impossible? You seem to be looking at this from a very all-or-nothing point of view.
Faster, more convenient transportation is what fares are charging for. Non-captured value is more complicated than that.
If the non-captured value is 20% of the captured value, it’s highly unlikely that trains will frequently be worth building, but rarely capture enough value. That would require that the true value stay within a very narrow area.
If it’s not a monopoly good, and marginal costs are close to average costs, then captured value will only go down as people build more trains, so that value not being captured doesn’t prevent trains from being built. If it is a monopoly good (I think it is, but I would appreciate it if some who actually knows tells me), and marginal costs are much lower than average costs, then a significant portion of the value will not be captured. Much more than 20%. It’s not entirely unreasonable that the true value is such that trains are rarely built when they should often be built.
That’s part of why I asked:
If the government is subsidizing it by, say, 20%, then the trains are likely worth while. If the government practically has to pay for the infrastructure to get people to operate trains, not so much.
Also, that comment isn’t really applicable to what you just posted it as a response to. It would fit better as a response to my last comment. The comment you responded to was just saying that unless the value of trains is orders of magnitude more than the cost, you’d never notice by looking at the economy.