Trump at 50% is quite far off IMO (I’d quote 25@35 for Trump).
That is, you would accept either of the following bets?
If Trump wins, you pay 25; if he loses, you gain 75
If Trump wins, you gain 35; if he loses, you pay 65
I would take the second one, my $35-70 if he wins against your $65-130 if he loses, if you can give evidence for your trustworthiness. (I can do the same. Nothing personal, just you don’t have a history here for me to go on. Lower stakes probably aren’t worth the hassle for me.) But fair warning, I would hedge it on betfair to win out either way.
Right, so I’m not exactly sure what I want to accomplish with my “symbolic statement” but betting with someone who immediately hedges it all out on betfair probably isn’t it :) I think I want to make it so that people who post what I consider poorly reasoned odds have money on the line if their reasoning is wrong, which isn’t accomplished by betting with a 3rd party who hedges their risk.
(also I didn’t read your post correctly the first time; the 2 bullet points would be correct if you replace “Trump” with “a candidate other than trump”)
That is, you would accept either of the following bets?
If Trump wins, you pay 25; if he loses, you gain 75
If Trump wins, you gain 35; if he loses, you pay 65
I would take the second one, my $35-70 if he wins against your $65-130 if he loses, if you can give evidence for your trustworthiness. (I can do the same. Nothing personal, just you don’t have a history here for me to go on. Lower stakes probably aren’t worth the hassle for me.) But fair warning, I would hedge it on betfair to win out either way.
Right, so I’m not exactly sure what I want to accomplish with my “symbolic statement” but betting with someone who immediately hedges it all out on betfair probably isn’t it :) I think I want to make it so that people who post what I consider poorly reasoned odds have money on the line if their reasoning is wrong, which isn’t accomplished by betting with a 3rd party who hedges their risk.
That’s fair :)
(also I didn’t read your post correctly the first time; the 2 bullet points would be correct if you replace “Trump” with “a candidate other than trump”)
Right, yes. I’ve never got the hang of translating things into bets. I spent several minutes checking and still got it wrong.